Down Goes No Labels

Good riddance.

No Labels sounds great on paper. Centrists. Problem Solvers. Moderates. Do-Gooders. The Nice People who will put all the Ugly Politics behind us as we all sing Kumbaya and work nicely together.

Maybe it started that way, but it ended as it deserved to, not with a Presidential campaign, but a whimper. Funded by Republicans and staffed by veterans of the NRSC, the NRCC, and the RNC, their intentions were clear despite their ever-changing moods regarding their plans.

Today, they ended their Presidential campaign efforts.

First, I did a video summarizing the story:

Some quick analysis:

1. This is a big win for Joe Biden.
   

   How big? Really big. This pulls a piece of the electoral calculus from being a difficult n-body problem to more normal politics with a 3rd party run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the big complexifier.
   

2. How do you know it would help Trump?

   
   Every threat on Trump’s radar screen gets attacked from top to bottom. Either from the Umber Mound himself or by his gigantic MAGA media machine. Odd how silent they were on No Labels, don’t you think?
   
   Trump’s feral cunning was in effect here, and he understood No Labels posting a candidate would have redounded to his political benefit. His silence spoke volumes.
   

3. They wrecked their brand.
   
   We’ve been hearing from staff and delegates that No Labels grassroots supporters and their more traditional do-gooder donors are disheartened at the level of mendacity and weirdness this campaign produced. I feel awful for the people they took on this weird, lousy ride.
   
   They were once beloved by their Problem Solver types in Congress, and that’s a mess, as well. Their reputation with the news media is shattered.
   

4. It was never about winning.
   
   Let’s call this thing what it was: a dark money organization designed to help Trump and get back at the Clintons. You can look into the Penn-Clinton psychodrama if you must, but I’ve written about it, talked about it on podcasts, and now, we’re watching the aftermath.
   
   Months and months of internal chaos, false hope, and pointless candidate searches have doomed this pointless endeavor while disheartening a lot of NL volunteers and activists who thought this was something it wasn’t. Their move from “we can win 270” to “we can blackmail the parties with our electoral college votes in a contingent election” was quite a step.

5. There was never a path to 270 Electoral College votes.
   
   Ever. Not for one day. And if you can’t get to 270, you’re a spoiler, full stop. Their early desired candidates — Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan — were designed not to build a winning coalition in enough states to win the nomination, but rather to draw conservative democrats and uneasy GOPers away from Joe Biden.
   
   This map from No Labels will never, ever not make me laugh:

   

6. Their polling was…creative.
   
   Well, in truth, it was a lie, stacked on a mountain of deceptions, coated with a thick layer of hot garbage, and filled with a creamy nougat. Over and over, they proclaimed their Magical Candidate X would give them a path to win — and I kid you not — Delaware from Joe Biden and Florida from Donald Trump. They even asserted that Texas was in play for the No Labels ticket, and that Washington, Oregon, and California were just crying out to vote against Joe Biden.
   
   It’s almost as if Mark Penn’s polling firm was goosing the numbers for No Labels, creating a confection of “we can win” survey garbage for the donor class. Almost.
   

7. The pro-democracy movement really jumped in on this one.

   
   Despite different approaches, many groups took on the No Labels lie from the start. The Lincoln Project led the way with aggressive research and messaging. Special props go to Philip Germain and Greg Minchak at TLP for spearheading this effort. Third Way, with Matt Bennett and Lucas Holtz played a vital role in knocking down the absurd No Labels polling and electability arguments.

8. Every experienced candidate they approached turned them down.

   
   They saw past the rah-rah veneer and loosey-goosey numbers and passed. There’s a reason third-party runs are hard as hell; math is a cruel and unforgiving mistress. There was no path to the billion-dollar price tag for a real race and (as mentioned above) no path to 270. The polling predicates of Unicorn Candidate X fell apart when a real candidate was tested in the mix.
   

9. My Saint Augustine Stance.

   
   St. Augustine once wrote, “Lord, make me good, but not yet.” (In Latin it was, “Oh, Master, make me chaste and celibate, but not yet!”) I have no hatred for third parties. I’m all for a more extensive, messier, complex system…just not now.

   
   The existential risk of doing anything that reduces the chances of defeating Donald Trump is so high that avoiding it means we’ve got enough on our plate with even a well-meaning third party…which Mark and Nancy most certainly were not.