Harris vs. Trump: Debate 1
New vs. old, sane vs. crazy, America vs. Trump
It feels like years ago when I wrote a memo on what Biden needed to do in the first big debate against Donald Trump. It was less than two months ago, but that’s the effect of political dog years, as the clock races by without cease.
As you may have noticed, that debate could not have gone any worse for President Biden, but age and the burdens he’s borne for so long gave us the result we saw. Go back and read a transcript of the Biden-Trump debate. It’s like peering into the mouth of madness. After a few brief seconds of trying to seem serious, it was all cray, all the time.
Trump didn’t win it: Biden lost.
What’s different since then?
Everything.
Kamala Harris is a more capable and charismatic candidate than the Trump campaign planned for, even in their worst campaign fever dreams. The energy she’s brought to the race has been transformative. Ignore the polling panic: she’s leading this race. He knows it, and it’s consuming him.
A key variant in the race now has Trump personally nervous: she’s great on camera — quick, sharp, engaging, and funny. He is a very skilled showman — or was before the current brain rot became so pronounced — and knows talent when he sees it. She’s attractive and relatable (yes, folks, those shallow things matter to voters), and Trump, for all his vanity, knows he’s old, bloated, cranky, and on a good day, unable to stay on topic.
I like her odds.
Trump has gotten worse since that debate. I know from sources in Trump's world that their fear he’ll blow this debate by winging it and hoping a bullshit tornado will work are growing more and more stark by the day.
He can’t be prepped because the “Let Trump Be Trump” philosophy is ascendent in his world now that Corey Lewandowski is the boss. He can’t be distracted from his other pursuits — pitching Ponzi NFT schemes, hawking Hulk Hogan beer, selling shoes, and milking Boomer Republicans out of their Social Security checks.
He’ll go into that room confident he’ll be able to talk to his base from the podium and avoid the media quoting his exact words to the public who don’t end up watching.
What To Expect From Trump
Donald Trump is always and forever a product of his narcissism, sociopathy, brain rot, mommy obsession, venality, blistering pig-ignorance, hatred of women, erectile dysfunction, thinly veiled racial animus, and obsessive-compulsive shit-talking.
Trump has abandoned reaching beyond the base.
This is now a campaign dedicated to stoking the worst of the worst of the MAGA crazies with an endless screed of manic threats and prophecies of doom. The mainstream media’s sanewashing will face a real challenge after this debate.
Trump will treat this as an external messaging exercise, not a debate.
When viewed through that lens, it’s much easier to process his coming insanity.Fear Porn on The Border and The Economy
He’ll try like hell to paint the American Dystopia so beloved of his febrile brain and that of his Fox-infected audience. The top of this list will be the border crisis. Expect his claims to be more lurid and false than before, setting a very high bar.
Expect lots of time on imaginary caravans, imaginary apartment takeovers (a new right-wing fantasy you can google if you must), and imaginary armies of “military-age men” (e.g., from 14 to 60) coming here to take your job, rape your wife, kill your dog, trans your kids, and install a taco truck on every corner.
Revisit point 1 for a reminder of why: he’s down just his base, and his base loves this theme.
A second big hit will be nuclear war. This is a favorite Russian and Trump talking point (weird, right?) but one he’s rolling out more and more frequently. (The correct response is, “Who wrote that line for you, Donald? The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs?”)Communism, As Far As The Eye Can See
I missed Harris wanting to seize the means of production and usher in the workers’ paradise, but Trump and his base love the word communism, even if they couldn’t describe it for a billion rubles. Trump has been doing a lot of his now-failed nicknaming strategy lately based on calling her “Comrade Kamala,” so expect to hear a lot from Trump on this particularly dumb theme.Expect Incoherence On Culture Wars Issues
Trump has switched it up on abortion now so wildly that his panic is showing. He brags about ending Roe, then flip-flops on a national abortion ban. It’s jibberish, and it means he’s terrified of the damage Dobbs has done to his party and his campaign.
He’ll throw it all at the wall, including his “plan” to make IVF treatments free. (Isn’t that a health care mandate, Donald? Damn Obamacare!)
Also, as a base-pleasing red meat toss, watch him double down on his new lie that kids are coming home from school having had sex change operations.Don’t Be Shocked If He Goes Really Ugly
A paid Trump influencer campaign has been spreading some particularly pernicious lies about Kamala Harris and her personal life. I’ll be blunt: their message is that she fucked her way to the top. Of course, it’s a pernicious lie, but don’t be shocked if Trump tries to rattle her cage with Willie Brown or other stories of her dating life.He Will Accuse Her of Being Complicit In The Butler County Shooting
Trump is waving this bloody ear pad on this one rather vigorously, stoking one of the few things his base finds genuinely motivating. I predict Trump will directly accuse VP Harris and the Biden administration of trying to have him killed. While it’s a far-right field assertion, madness at every level, and a ludicrous lie, I sense it coming.
What Harris Should Do
Past vs Future, Evil vs. Good, Wrong vs. Right. Weak vs. Strong
These are the predicates of every debate at this level; in this case, they play universally to her advantage.
Trump is the past in both action and ideas. He is the past of COVID, of economic chaos, of lies and illegality, of Charlottesville and January 6th. He is the past of ideas that have been tried and failed time and again. His is the past on freedom, rights, liberty, and equal justice.
He is demonstrably on the side of evil, from his love of dictators (and his promised dictatorship) to January 6th to his commitment to jail his political opponents.
He is wrong, and she must say so: wrong for America, wrong about America, wrong in his life, beliefs, and behavior. He will do only what is right for him, not for us.
Finally, assert that Trump is a weak man, playing a strong one, a comically pathetic blowhard pretending to be a real man, a real leader, and a real President. All the macho posturing bullshit that Trump’s base loves comes from a man who wears lifts in his shoes and more makeup and hairspray than the most ambitious drag queen.Love America More
I know this sounds strange to some, but it’s simple. Harris should assert that Donald Trump hates America. He calls our beloved nation a shithole. He says we’re a third-world country. He tears down the good in this great country and elevates the worst.
He doesn’t own the flag, patriotism, or leadership; in fact, he demeans them all every day.
She should elevate America, not condemn its past wrongs. Americans want a president who loves this country, its laws, and its constitution and honors its place in the world.
He doesn’t. She does.Age Him Out
The Trump campaign’s referendum on Joe Biden’s age was an effective political trap that is now a weight around the aged and diminished Trump. Harris should take every opportunity to remind voters that she has more energy, focus, and ability to lead in a complex, modern world than Donald Trump.
This is a high-low message. His ideas are old…and so is he.
One example is Trump’s obsession with tariffs, which is straight out of the 19th century and a throwback to pre-industrial America, which is an anachronism as out of touch as Trump himself. It’s not just that he’s old…it’s that his ideas are rejected relics of a forgotten past, abandoned because they don’t work.
"This is the best Donald Trump will ever be. Right now. Right here. Even Republicans know that Donald Trump’s mind is slipping, day by day, speech by speech. Even Republicans know that he’s lost touch with reality.”Make Him Fight the Old GOP
Want to churn Trump into a frenzy?
“Donald, hundreds of Republicans, including almost everyone who worked in your White House, refuse to vote for you.”
"People like Liz and Dick Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are real conservatives, and I respect them for that, even if we disagree on some things. We do agree you can never be President again.”
"Donald, most people in your party think they’d be better off without you. I feel bad for you.”Watch Trump’s Physicality
One non-rhetorical caution: Trump’s hulking presence behind Hillary Clinton was one of the iconic images of the 2016 campaign, and she failed to properly respond to it in real time.
Not this, ever again. For all his deficits, the man always knows where the camera is looking.
He’ll try to find a way to heave his quivering mass to lurk behind or over her. Harris must immediately, firmly, and directly turn to him and say something in the range of “Donald, are you all right? Do you need some help? Because your podium is over there, and I suggest you get back behind it.”Don’t Chase Each Lie
There’s a tee-up here for her to knock one out of the park with, “There you go again…” in a callback not only to Ronald Reagan’s most famous and effective debate smackdown but one that boxes all of Trump’s endless torrent of lies into a single frame.
It matters less in aggregate and specifics if it's all a lie. And…it’s all a lie.For The Love Of God, Stay Out of The Policy Trap.
Keep it simple. Stick to the big picture. Don’t get in the weeds.
Please. I’m begging you.
If you think Donold is crazy now, wait until Kamala gives him a nationally televised, prime-time beat-down. It's going to get very ugly. You know it, I know it, Kamala knows it. She's prepared.
excellent advice, Rick, as one would expect...
one thing, re Trump's stalking onstage of Clinton. I guess it's fair to say she "failed" to confront him, but if she failed, so did everyone else. it took me years of seeing and remembering that clip with horror, it was only a year ago that I suddenly realized how sick it was that nobody—not one single person—spoke out for her, called him out for her, gave her even the slightest protection or respect. we all just watched like it was some old Walt Disney "Living Desert" staged death match between a snake and a prairie dog...Harris is, thank God, benefiting from a network of people determined not to abandon her to the predations of vicious misogyny and racism. Clinton had no such protection, and that's on all of us.
Clinton would not argue that she's a gifted campaigner; I remember her saying she always has good numbers for job performance but has trouble getting the job. in addition to her lack of natural campaigning talent she was always hamstrung by being in that first generation of feminist pols who fought for a place at government and corporate tables. they were endlessly warned: don't be angry! don't be aggressive, don't laugh (they don't like your voice or for you to sound lighthearted). Clinton is a diligent lawyer, like Harris she prepares meticulously. unlike Harris, in politics she couldn't project the ease and confidence that Harris does so naturally. part of that is Harris's temperament but part is that Harris stands on the shoulders of Clinton and Pelosi and all the women who busted down the fckin doors.