The Phantom of Mar-A-Lago

The End of Trump's Empire of Fraud

Fun and odd Donald Trump fact: he’s a huge fan of Andrew Lloyd Weber. When I first heard his in 2015, I was bemused, the amused.

Adam Gopnik wrote about it in 2021 in a piece called, "How to Explain Trump’s Love for the Musical ‘Cats’”:

“Trump’s need to be soothed by Broadway music degrades both the office of the Presidency and a great American institution. It’s hard for those of us in New York for whom, as the above Tony memory suggests, the details of Broadway musicals are almost uncomfortably well remembered, to decide which is more shocking: the disquiet of learning that the Broadway tradition is some kind of mental pacifier for Trump, or the knowledge that Trump confirmed what people who don’t like show tunes have always thought about show tunes—i.e., that they are what people like Donald Trump like. Tragically, this is what we have come to: a critic must somehow jump to the defense of Andrew Lloyd Webber.”

Which led us in 2021 to produce an ad called “Covita”:

Did the ad start with me bellowing out lyrics over the phone mocking “Evita” to editors?

Yes. Yes, it did. Across platforms it racked up something like 8 million views, and is still one of my favorite ads because it caught a Trumpian moment perfectly, and also polluted something he loved as a weapon of mockery against him.

So when we saw a TikTok video last week of Trump being serenaded by a MAGA version of Phantom, we had to jump in the game:

Some Notes On His Financial Despair

Unless Tik Tok investor Jeff Yass or some generous Saudi, Russian, or tech-bro sugar daddy pops in a wire transfer to Trump this morning, the mechanical process of seizing his fraudulently-gained assets begins, and once it starts, it won’t stop. Even if a sugar daddy comes along, it’s a sunk-cost. Trump has no loyalty, gratitude, or honor, so he’ll screw over the people who bail him out just like any other greater-fool investor in any of his enterprises.

Here’s the other thing everyone seems to be missing; Trump’s behavior isn’t going to change and his legal peril continues at scale. You can’t blame him; he’s a sociopath, and he’s gotten away with criming for so long, what’s a bit more? The E. Jean Carroll case is a perfect example. He’s well on his way to Defamation Penalty III because he can’t shut his cake flap or conform his behavior.

They will take his bank accounts and properties one by one even though said properties are in large measure financial dogs and not even worth a fraction what Trump claims.

The empire his father built over decades, and Trump slowly squandered and burnt to the ground will not pass on to his sons and his daughter-wife. The lending world will see them as sub-prime risks, at best.

They’ll sell off a bit here and a bit there, living comfortably enough. Cokely Trump has already embraced being a shitposting edgelord, Ivanka is living off Jared’s Bonesaw Bucks, and Eric still looks like a man easily overcome by inanimate objects. Baron Trump is still off-limits…so far…but Melania’s plan to establish a Slovenian monarchy can’t be far away.

I’m mostly watching the hardest hit group of Americans; MAGA voters who view this proceeding as the terminal moment in the American experiment. The rhetoric is rising on the right about the seizure of his assets, carefully eliding the reasons. “They’re communists seizing his assets” always misses a) the misapplication of communism as a term of approbation, and b) all the damn fraud.

They believed him to be a rich and incorruptible a man for whom money made nothing , a man who they thought was beyond the blandishments of the Washington elites the lobbyist and the corporations. This was always a stupid illusion, but it was a persistent.

That nearly-religious belief in Trump’s wealth gave them a sense of comfort. He was independent. He was a deal-maker. He was the irrepressible and incorruptible CEO would would “make deals for America” the way he did in his imaginary businesses career. This idea Trump couldn’t be bought was utterly risible, shaped their beliefs, especially when contrasted with career politicians, even those with impeccable, conservative credentials.

Many will cling to it. A fraction will see the revelation that they’ve been conned by a con man of epic scope and step back.

Don’t Say The B-Word

Bankruptcy.

Yes, bankruptcy would stop the clock on many of the seizures of his property. It would allow him to regain some tiny measure of control of his destiny, but at the cost of the termination of most of his lending arrangements, a fire-sale, and of course, endless public humiliation.

Unlike the past, Trump has no grownups in the room counseling him to be smart about his financial future; he has no future, and dying a few years from now still unwinding the bankruptcy is a blow he can’t endure. There is an argument that New York is being handed a slate of depressed assets he didn’t intend to pay for anyway, but that’s a bit too much 5D Chess for me.

What To Expect Today

As the day begins and reality sets in, you can expect Trump to do what he always does attempt to change the subject. Even at the lower number, it sure looks like Trump can’t post even $125 million for a bond, so the festivities continue…

I suspect they’re looking for some kind of major break, though in candor, I don’t really know what. They’re also probably about to empty out whatever is in the darkest parts of the opposition research closet against Joe Biden. Truth Social is going to host some epic ranting.

When you get down to it, Donald Trump is only had one truly successful business in the last 25 years: a rolling email scam of credulous Republicans, unwilling and unable to believe anything outside of the Fox News bubble. Even that one is on the ropes.

None of this is a conspiracy against Trump, though he’ll desperately try to sell it that way. Donald Trump made every part of this calamity by his own hands.

Post Script: The latest illusions is that Trump will be several billion dollars richer from his crapulous Truth Social platform going public. He’s not, and won’t be. First, the deal hasn’t fully closed yet, and even when it does his stock will be locked up for at least six months.

Second, and most importantly is the idea that he’ll realize the maxed out paper valuations that the SPAC behind the deal of course ludicrous. Even the most generous EBIDTA formula multiplier in the world can’t make a company with $3 million in revenue and a $50 million loss last year into a multi-million dollar player in the already crowded and brutal social media platform market. It’s a meme stock.