The Plan To Steal the 2024 Election

Some initial observations.

There is an entirely justified sense that Donald Trump’s defeat won’t end this crisis, that victory in November will slide into two months of lies, violence, and weaponized attempts to overthrow the will of the American people.

I wish I could sell you a happy ending: on Election Night, we’ll all be in bed by midnight and wake up in a better country.

Americans love a neat conclusion to the movie, a pretty bow tying the details together, and a happy ending. Hell, at this point, we deserve one.

The world isn’t like that, and wars aren’t like that. As we approach a time when Trump’s defeat is in sight, it’s vital to remember that Election Day isn’t the final battle. This year's Election Day is Normandy, the moment when the final die is cast and the forces fighting evil take the initiative. We still face the long march to Berlin.

Trump and his allies have a plan to steal this election, not to win it. It’s a plan less shambolic and random than the 2021 plan by a long shot, and we need to prepare for its terrible implications, well, yesterday.

Some preliminary thoughts on the challenge ahead:

Trump and His Allies Never Paid A Price for the Last Coup

If you think that a thousand or so mooks in jail after January 6th, 2021, has taught Donald Trump, his much more intelligent controllers and enablers, the MAGA media, and the constellation activists from the Federalist Society to the Proud Boys a lesson, you’re right.

The lesson was that they almost got away with it, and no one at the top suffered.

That’s the hard truth.

The attack on January 6, 2021 was moments away from success. They damn near stopped the certification of the election through violence after all their legal wrangling in the states fell apart. They’ve hired armies of real lawyers this time, played legislative games in the states, and installed partisan election boards to cause chaos.

Merrick Garland’s utterly inexcusable delay in prosecuting Trump and the criminal conspiracy he led against this nation will go down as one of the most reckless and provocative acts in this Republic’s long history. It was a green flag waving to the Steve Bannons, Roger Stones, and low travelers backing violence over democracy.

Arresting and prosecuting the shock troops was necessary but not sufficient.

Not one of the ringleaders has been held accountable, and since an unfinished coup is a training exercise, the bad guys are coming back for another round. Why not? The Garland DOJ made it clear they’re satisfied with rounding up some small fry while the real perps walk free.

Trump Is The Monarch of the GOP

Until prison or the actuarial tables finally catch up, Trump’s control of the GOP continues. The rebel alliance of ex-GOPers and Republicans opposing Trump is essential, and the schism in the GOP is widening, but Trump controls the base of the GOP with an iron grip. He’ll still decide who wins and loses GOP primaries as long as he lives as a free man.

The monarchial fantasy so beloved on the Yarvin Right has blossomed into an overtly dynastic play, with Don Jr. publicly declared the political heir apparent and even a mini-cult growing up around Barron Trump.

The base wags the tail of the Republican dog. Mitch McConnell and Mike Johnson will never, ever, ever oppose even the most ludicrous and criminal Trump efforts to overturn the 2024 election. The Senate GOP knows 2026 is year of “the bad map” for their candidates.

The House — and GOP state legislative bodies — will eagerly involve themselves in overt efforts to overturn the will of the American people. In the U.S. Senate, the growing MAGA faction will play along.

Republican governors — with a handful of exceptions — will never defy Trump, even as the attempt to steal the 2024 election becomes comically dangerous.

Autocracy Won’t Go Quietly

Autocratic elements around the world have created in this era is a movement dedicated to a post-Democratic future. The MAGA movement is merely its American franchise.

As the Trump Republican party grows increasingly distant from anything resembling the American dream and the American system, none of the incentives that drive its headlong rush into the darkness of autocracy disappear when Trump is defeated. The gift autocrats offer their followers at first is a channel for their real and imagined grievances. It’s exciting: permission to hate without sanction or consequence makes people without power or the drive to achieve more in their lives feel alive, crackling with energy. They need never look in a mirror at their failures; it’s someone else’s fault.

The pissed-off guy in Springfield just knows those Haitians are ruining the place. It’s not his laziness, drinking, and blinkered life. It couldn’t be. He’s told over and over again on State Television (Fox, for you all playing at home), and he sees it on Der Sturmer (MAGA Facebook groups, natch) that everything was perfect before Those People arrived.

Autocracy’s followers trade loyalty for responsibility and hatred for citizenship. It’s a seductive trap, almost always baited with both phony nostalgia and weaponized hatred of a minority in the populations — immigrants, Jews, capitalists, educated people — and in an era where social media makes it all spread through society at a pace unimaginable before today, it works better than ever before.

Trump’s messaging is increasingly autocratic, culture-war, and overtly racist. When a candidate talks about “bad genes” and "giving people a number,” it’s perhaps better understood in the original German.

How To Stop This

The only solution to these problems — even a partial solution — is to blow the doors off on Election Day. I am increasingly convinced that only an Obama-level shellacking will deter the worst aspects of the Republican plan to overturn the 2024 election.

We’re talking about a real Wrath of God-level defeat for the GOP in the presidential race, the Hosue, and the Senate. The Senate is tough, but the other two categories offer a path to victory that day and can deter at least some of the evils that Trump has unleashed and encouraged.